NFL Mock Draft: Discovering Need Through Capital Allocation
The “Sharpe Ratio” is a metric used in investing to uncover the ideal level of investment allocated to an assortment of different asset classes in order to optimize performance while minimizing risk. No such metric exists in the NFL but by comparing where each team decides to allocate salary and draft capital, we can uncover gaps that, in theory, should determine team needs as we head into the NFL draft.
Below is a mock draft based solely on where there are gaps in the investments made by each team through free agency and the draft. Target positions were determined where salary cap and draft capital fell below their respective medians, or where there was a large gap in the investment of salary cap versus draft capital, i.e., a team that ranks highly in salary cap spent on the position, but ranks lower in draft capital spent on the position.
Players at each position were determined using the “Consensus Big Board” from The Athletic.
You can look at each team’s needs in more detail using the dashboard here.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Target positions: QB, WR, TE, LB
Selection: Trevor Lawrence, QB
2. New York Jets
- Target positions: QB, CB, RB, Edge
Selection: Justin Fields, QB
3. San Francisco 49ers
- Target positions: CB, TE
Selection: Zach Wilson, QB
The 49ers do not have a “need” at the QB position given the salary cap and draft capital investment given to the position. However, the trade that resulted in them making the third overall pick suggests they will take one. You can read more about why teams should always draft quarterbacks with high picks here.
4. Atlanta Falcons
- Target positions: S, RB, TE
Selection: Kyle Pitts, TE
5. Cincinnati Bengals
- Target positions: OL, S, Edge
Selection: Penei Sewell, OT
6. Miami Dolphins
- Target positions: RB, WR, Edge
Selection: Ja’Marr Chase, WR
7. Detroit Lions
- Target positions: IDL, WR, S
Selection: Jaylen Waddle, WR
8. Carolina Panthers
- Target positions: TE, CB
Selection: Patrick Surtain II, CB
9. Denver Broncos
- Target positions: LB, IDL, QB
Selection: Micah Parson, LB
10. Dallas Cowboys
- Target positions: S, TE, Edge
Selection: Kwity Paye, Edge
11. New York Giants
- Target positions: Edge, LB, WR
Selection: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB
12. Philadelphia Eagles
- Target positions: LB, S, CB
Selection: Jaycee Horn, CB
13. Los Angeles Chargers
- Target Positions: OT, TE
Selection: Rashawn Slater, OT
14. Trade: Las Vegas Raiders (From Minnesota)
- Target positions: TE, LB, WR
Selection: Devonta Smith, WR
The Las Vegas Raiders have the luxury of moving up due to having enough draft capital to be ranked in the 58th percentile. This allows them to move up to the 14th overall pick and grab a player at a position of need in Devonta Smith. Minnesota ranks in the 48th percentile in total draft capital and they would welcome the opportunity to add additional picks later in the draft. Las Vegas sends the Vikings 1.17 and 3.16 for 1.14. The additional third-round pick helps them eventually move into the second round.
15. New England Patriots
- Target positions: IDL, QB, WR
Selection: Trey Lance, QB
16. Trade: New York Jets (From Arizona)
- Target positions: QB, CB, RB, Edge
Selection: Caleb Farley, CB
The Jets send 1.23, 3.02, and 3.23 to the Arizona Cardinals for 1.16 and 5.16. Arizona currently ranks in the 36th percentile in total draft capital and they have no picks in the third or fourth rounds. This move helps them plug holes and add capital.
17. Trade: Minnesota Vikings (from Las Vegas)
- Target positions: IDL, LB, S
Selection: Trevon Moehrig, S
18. Miami Dolphins
- Target positions: RB, WR, Edge
Selection: Jaelen Phillips, Edge
19. Trade: Tennessee Titans (from Washington)
- Target positions: Edge, TE, OL
Selection: Christian Darrisaw, OT
Washington seizes on an opportunity to move back in the draft and acquire additional capital after the Titans are eager to fill an Isaiah Wilson-sized hole on the offensive line. The Titans send 1.22 and 3.37 to Washington for 1.19.
20. Chicago Bears
- Target positions: CB, OL, QB
Selection: Mac Jones, QB
21. Trade: Baltimore Ravens (from Indianapolis)
- Target positions: Edge, S, WR
Selection: Azeez Ojulari, Edge
Baltimore uses the luxury of having two first-round picks to move up and take an edge defender. They send 1.27, 3.31, and 4.31 to Indianapolis for 1.21. Indianapolis needs to add draft capital as they currently are only ranked in the 27th percentile in total draft capital.
22. Trade: Washington Football Team (from Tennessee)
- Target positions: TE, WR, LB
Selection: Zaven Collins, LB
23. Trade: Arizona Cardinals (from New York Jets)
- Target positions: TE, RB, CB
Selection: Greg Newsome II, CB
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Target positions: RB, Edge, OL
Selection: Teven Jenkins, OT
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Target positions: QB, WR, TE, LB
Selection: Rashod Bateman, WR
26. Cleveland Browns
- Target positions: LB, IDL, WR
Selection: Christian Barmore, IDL
27. Indianapolis Colts (from Baltimore)
- Target positions: Edge, S, WR
Selection: Kadarious Toney, WR
28. New Orleans Saints
- Target positions: IDL, TE, WR
Selection: Rondale Moore, WR
29. Green Bay Packers
- Target positions: LB, OL, WR
Selection: Samuel Cosmi, OT
30. Buffalo Bills
- Target positions: TE, RB, S, CB
Selection: Najee Harris, RB
31. Trade: Miami Dolphins (from Baltimore)
- Target positions: RB, WR, Edge
Selection: Travis Etienne, RB
Miami fills its third and final hole by moving up and selecting running back, Travis Etienne. Baltimore is able to collect a second pick and recoup the draft capital they gave up in order to move up earlier in the draft. Miami sends 2.04 and 3.18 to Baltimore for 1.31 and 3.41.
32. Trade: Kansas City Chiefs (from Tampa Bay)
- Target positions: CB, OL
Selection: Alex Leatherwood, OT
Kansas City’s draft capital in the second round ranks in the 88th percentile while Tampa Bay’s draft capital in the second round ranks in 12th percentile. The Buccaneers don’t have too many holes to plug but may look to add a QB and they should be able to take a shot at one in the second round. Kansas City sends 2.26 and 2.31 to Tampa Bay for 1.32.
Teams without a first-round pick:
Seattle Seahawks
- Target positions: CB, WR, TE
Los Angeles Rams
- Target positions: OL, Edge, LB
Houston Texans
- Target positions: Edge, OL, S
